Published in draft format.One way to look at investing it that it allows you to express your opinion.1 That opinion should, of course, be informed by underlining analysis and underwriting.2
Another key factor is that there is never a shortage of potential investment opportunities. The stock market is an endlessly complex puzzle.3 In the most simple framing, the only to make money in a market is to know something the average market participant is ignorant to.
At the end of the day, success neatly tracks the leaderboard known of profit and loss. The money is simply proof you are playing the game well. All of this combines to make investing intellectually stimulating.
Most people don’t actually have strong opinions that they are willing to track and stand behind. They just like to talk.4 You can pressure test this statement using the universal language of sports. If someone thinks a certain NFL quarterback is shit, just ask them, “Are you betting against them?” If the answer is no, it’s most likely not a valuable point of view. If someone around you is always taking a pessimistic point of view on “the west” or the U.S., just ask them, “But are you short the market?” The answer will be no, almost universally.
No, I am not advocating for everyone to become obsessed with the marketization of everything. And it’s, on balance, definitely not a good idea to bet on sports. But, in a world where opinions are so easy to espouse via X, Instagram, or your favorite group chat, the noise continues to ramp up to deafening levels. The ability to sift through the noise becomes a more critical skill each passing year.
DEVELOPING A WORLD VIEW, OR RAMIFICATIONS OF A POST-AMERICAN WORLD ORDER
An investment thesis might be a specific as to be on a singular company, or as grandiose as a holistic world view.
In trying to filter out the noise, it is insightful to hear the opinions expressed by real, live players. Singapore’s leadership is just that.5 And there is no better topic to listen to Prime Minister Wong on than broad macro trends, such as the future of the global world order.6
The TLDR is that Singapore’s leaders believes we are in a post-American world order. The key part of this assessment is this is not a “Trump thing” or a “MAGA thing” but a permanent reframing of the global world order. Americans as a whole are, on average, no longer interested in being the world police in any and all senses of the term.
Previously, the U.S. was the only superpower. As such, in the financial markets and otherwise, it was the world’s global insurer. If that changes as part of this new world order, everything changes. But as Prime Minster Wong says, while the old rules no longer apply, the new rules are still being written. A potentially tumultuous time.
Why am I talking about “world views” to start a year end investment wrap-up?
Well, it’s this level of thinking that often drives investment decisions. It was a high-level view that sovereign debt matters that brought bitcoin into the portfolio a decade ago. It was a continuation of the view, with new facts and circumstances, that made us short the U.S. dollar at the beginning of 2025. If Prime Minister Wong is correct, it only seems too clear that the U.S. national debt may continue to impact how we invest.
In 2021, it was a high-level view that compute would be a scare resource in the coming years that brought Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, and other semi-conductor names into the portfolio.
Those two world views are maybe the biggest drivers of value creation in the portfolio during those periods.7If Singapore’s view is correct, it almost certainly has ramifications for investing in the U.S.
QUANTIFYING U.S. RISK
There’s been no shortage of interesting happens in markets this year. Maybe first, and foremost, the move in gold is among the most consequential of the year.8
Why? Per usual, when you want to understand any market, look to the applicable bond markets.
Longterm bond yields continued there march higher in 2025. Unlike short-term rates (which are set by central banks), the 30-year rate is largely set by the open market. For this reason, it acts as a barometer for longterm growth, inflation expectations, and fiscal health. For this reason, 30-year bond yields are a crucial signal.
Since the 30-year yield is steepening, while the 2-year is decreasing, we have a powerful signal that some of the smartest money sees a future in which inflation will not settle back at 2% as the Fed desires and suggests the cost of living, and of doing business, remains structurally higher in the coming years.
This new regime, with structurally higher rates, would also continue to put pressure on sovereign debt as interest expense balloons.
Fundamentally, this all reads as a very negative outlook.
After writing this dower preamble to this post, I stumbled upon data from the latest University of Michigan economic conditions index.
While I didn’t expect to see rainbows and unicorns, I also didn’t quite expect to see literal generational lows.
This couldn’t help but make me think I would be wrong to be this negative heading into 2026. Maybe all this American negativity is actually already priced in, and the U.S. market can reach even higher levels as sentiment turns.
Addendum. After hitting publish, I saw both the WSJ and FT opinion pages publish pieces respectively titled, “Is the West Over?” and “So long, American exceptionalism“. If anything, this would be a sign of my thesis above that the historic levels of negative sentiment associated with the U.S. is priced in, and we are set-up for higher equity prices in 2026.
THE PORTFOLIO
Over the last 24 months, 36 positions have been closed out while only 2 new positions have been opened. That is a striking ratio. Our ideal holding period is at least 5 years, and most of these 36 positions were opened in 2020 or 2021, putting us right on that 5 year holding period.
This general trend came to a head during the April market selloff in which several position were sold via stop loss. This selling has impacted the overall asset location, which had been very stable for several years. As liquidation has ramped up, the cash position has increased significantly to 32%.
Of course, given that April became another “v-shaped recovery“, these latest fear-based sales were not good decisions in the simplest of terms.9 However, overall, the tendency to close positions rather than starting new ones has been one we are okay with.
2025 RETURNS
Through Christmas Eve, the publicly-traded equities in the portfolio returned 31% compared to the S&P 500’s 19% total return.
| AVG. % OF PORTFOLIO | 2025 RETURN | |
|---|---|---|
| EQUITIES | ~50% | +31% |
| CASH | ~30% | +3% |
| CRYPTO | ~17.5% | -7% |
| FIXED INCOME | ~2.5% | +4% |
For the year, the highest returning individual positions were as follows:
| COMPANY | 2025 RETURN |
|---|---|
 | +159% |
 | +80% |
 | +78% |
The only position that was negative for 2025 was Marvell. See the latest quarterly portfolio update for more.
2026 PLAYBOOK
Warren Buffet uses the analogy of investor to baseball player, with the major difference being in investing there are no called strikes. Buffet has talked about his ability to stand at the plate and watch thousands of opportunities (pitches) fly by. Buffet does not have to swing until he sees the perfect pitch. And, he sees his (plate) discipline as a huge advantage.
This principle of choosing your spot has always resonated with me. In the past there have been years when I’ve had to stretch to articulate a plan for the coming year. This year, flat out, I have no plan to take the bat off my shoulder.10 That’s because, I see a limited opportunity to invest with that margin of safety that we like. Even among the existing individual stock holdings, which are companies I’ve deemed to be great, I see limited short- to medium-term opportunities.
Thinking back to Liberation Day in April 2025, there are a number of lesson to be learned. While, yes, it’s a reminder how quickly equity prices can move down in a volatile market. It’s also a reminder how quickly they can rebound as the market continues to digest the new data. And, maybe most importantly, it’s was a reminder that in those times of fear, even the highest quality companies have their equities put on sale. That’s precisely when we want to buy.
MORE READING — BEST OF 2025
- Personal Tech Hardware [Longterm.co | December]
- Decadence [Longterm.co | October]
- Electricity generation, household costs, and how it relates to the future of national cybersecurity [Substack | October]
- With Innovation, You Will [Substack | October]
- Weight gain [Substack | September]
- The return of memetic assassination attempts [Substack | September]
- On AOL, No Alphabet, Well, MapQuest [Substack | August]
- Socialism is so hot right now [Substack | July]
- A negative of artificial intelligence proliferation [Substack | May]
- Retrofitting malls into casinos [Substack | March]
- Trump and the dollar [Substack | February]
EDITOR’S NOTE: Reach out to us if you have our personal contact or head to the contact page — would love to hear from you.