Why do otherwise intelligent people think everything is awful?
I am enamored with sentiment. Itās a common point of discussion in markets. But it can be applied more broadly.
In looking for some data on the current sentiment of the American people regarding the state of the U.S., I found a Pew Research poll. While I think there can be great value in polls, the line of questioning matters when it comes to the usefulness. On the surface I found the question below to be interesting.
The results show a meaningful difference in sentiment between different generations, particularly among Democrats.
I initially found the premise of this next question to be silly.
Silly how? Because I donāt believe most Americans have a good understanding of how āpeople like themā lived 50 years ago. Most folks donāt know history that well.
Based on these results, 50 years ago must have been rainbows and kittens. Letās look.
- Today you hear how U.S. politicians canāt be trusted ā¦ fifty years ago, in 1973, the Watergate scandal was in full swing ultimately leading the resignation of the President. Which came just months after the Vice President resigned due to his own conviction onĀ felonyĀ charges.
- Today you hear how the U.S. courts are overbearing and are encroaching on the rights of the people ā¦ in 1973 the same abortion rights conversations were happening leading up to the Roe v. Wade decree that very year.
- Today you hear about the U.S. getting involved in too many foreign conflicts ā¦ in 1973 the Vietnam War was coming to its climax. Arguably the most glaring example of foreign overreach, ever. Oh, and another small item that needs to be brought up on the military front ā until January 1973 there was a draft system for the armed services. Thatās reason enough for the youngest generations to have a positive attitude. Today a draft is unimaginable.
Not the perfect utopia I was expecting based on the “everything is awful” narrative in 2023. Rather, these events are a near perfect mirror held up against today’s hottest political and cultural issues.
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These are just a few specific examples from one specific country over one half century. Taking a step back, overall, if you are reading this in 2023, you and I are immensely better off than our ancestors. Not just compared to our parents in 1973 but our ancient ancestors from hundreds and thousands of years prior.
How can I say this with such confidence? Based on the data, we are safer and healthier than ever before. So, why does sentiment not reflect these data? Beyond the psychological factors, I believe there are two main dynamics at play.
First, we are victims of our own success. As we become richer and have more time to reflect, tolerance for unsafe and unhealthy conditions diminishes. This results in an increase in collective unhappiness about these injustices.
Second, news travels much faster and more effectively than any time in history. For this reason we see many more injustices than prior generations. So we get unhappy about these injustices at a higher frequency.
It’s very reasonable to find yourself dwelling on that horrific, violent story you heard on this morning’s news, e.g., a murder. What’s unfortunate is to go on without seeking out the counterpoint that can be found in the bigger picture, i.e., there are many less murders today than in the past.
To counteract these sometimes unavoidable dynamics of modern life, I try to actively seek out well thought-out critiques on complex topics like this. Analyses that are rooted in data and are, for better or worse, less emotionally driven.
If that doesn’t work, at the very least, just be happy you and your family no longer need to worry about the same threats as your cave men and women ancestors — like running from a pack of wild animals. That’s a happy thing. If that is too prehistoric for you, be thankful that you wonāt be drafted and forced to trade in your $200 sunglasses and $100 beanie to don fatigues.
Editor’s Note: In the category of — you cannot make this up — the day this post was published news broke of the most significant conflict between Israel and it’s neighbors since, you guessed it, precisely 50 years ago in October 1973. And, yes, important to remember that the Israel Defense Forces do utilize a draft system.